We analyse models for panel data that arise in risk allocation problems,when a given set of sources are the cause of an aggregate risk value. We focus on the modeling and forecasting of proportional contributions to risk. Compositional data methods are proposed and the regression is flexible to incorporate external information from other variables. We guarantee that projected proportional contributions add up to 100%, and we introduce a method to generate confidence regions with the same restriction. An illustration using data from the stock exchange is provided.

Boonen, T.J.; Guillén, M. (Riskcenter, XREAP); Santolino, M. (Riskcenter, XREAP)

XREAP2017-04.pdf

In Spain, economic disparities between regions have traditionally played a relevant role in migration. Nevertheless, during the previous high-instability period, analyses provided conflicting results about the effect of these variables. In this work, we aim to determine the role that labour market factors play in internal migration during the Great Recession, paying special attention to the migration response of the heterogeneous population groups. To do so, we resort to an extended gravity model and we consider as a territorial unit the 45 Spanish Functional Urban Areas. Our results point to real wages as having a significant influence on migration motivations.

Melguizo, C. (AQR-IREA, XREAP); Royuela, V. (AQR-IREA, XREAP)

XREAP2017-03.pdf

This paper analyzes the drivers of wage differences among college graduates who hold a degree in a different field of study. We focus on Turkey, an emerging country that is characterized by a sustained expansion of higher education. We estimate conditional wage gaps by field of study using OLS regressions. Average differentials are subsequently decomposed into the contribution of observable characteristics (endowment) and unobservable characteristics (returns). To shed light on distributional wage disparities by field of study, we provide estimates along the unconditional wage distribution by means of RIF-Regressions. Finally, we also decompose the contribution of explained and unexplained factors in accounting for wage gaps along the whole distribution. As such, this is the first work providing evidence on distributional wage differences by college major for a developing country. The results indicate the existence of important wage differences by field of study, which are partly accounted by differences in observable characteristics (especially occupation and, to a lesser extent, employment sector). These pay gaps are also heterogeneous over the unconditional distribution of wages, as is the share of wage differentials that can be attributed to differences in observable characteristics across workers with degrees in different fields of study.

Di Paolo, A. (AQR-IREA, XREAP); Tansel, A.

XREAP2017-02.pdf

In this paper, we examine the impact of non-stop flights on the connectivity of European cities with distant locations from the rest of the world. We use data on inter-city passenger flows including non-stop and connecting traffic so that we have a precise measure of the economic and social links between cities. We apply a matching procedure and run regressions using instrumental variables to deal with the potential endogeneity bias of the variables for non-stop flights. We find a strong causal relationship between the amount of total traffic and the supply of non-stop long-haul flights in the considered inter-city markets. Traffic increases from the shift from ‘not having’ to ‘having’ non-stop flights can be more than double. Such increase in the amount of traffic does not seem to be related with a systematic change in fares.

Bernardo, V. (GiM-IREA, XREAP); Fageda, X. (GiM-IREA, XREAP)

XREAP2017-01.pdf

This paper analyses the relationship between road infrastructure improvements and investment in capital assets. Using aggregate data at a provincial level for 1977-2008, an equation for machinery and equipment investment is estimated applying Panel Corrected Standard Errors. The results indicate that the long-term elasticities of investment in relation to market potential, GDP and average years of schooling are 0.90, 0.75 and 0.80, respectively. Additionally, the long run impact of a road infrastructure investment policy is assessed. We find that the elasticities of investment in machinery and equipment, capital stock and GDP in relation to travel time are 1.18, 0.33 and 0.11, respectively.

Ruíz, A. (GEAP, XREAP), Matas, A. (GEAP, XREAP), Raymond, J. Ll. (GEAP, XREAP)

XREAP2016-09.pdf

We show how data collected from a GPS device can be incorporated in motor insurance ratemaking. The calculation of premium rates based upon driver behaviour represents an opportunity for the insurance sector. Our approach is based on count data regression models for frequency, where exposure is driven by the distance travelled and additional parameters that capture characteristics of automobile usage and which may affect claiming behaviour. We propose implementing a classical frequency model that is updated with telemetrics information. We illustrate the method using real data from usage-based insurance policies. Results show that not only the distance travelled by the driver, but also driver habits, significantly influence the expected number of accidents and, hence, the cost of insurance coverage. Telemetry should facilitate the inclusion within insurance pricing of those factors that traffic authorities identify as being associated with risky drivers, including, for example, traffic violations.

Ayuso, M. (Riskcenter, XREAP); Guillén, M. (Riskcenter, XREAP); Nielsen, J. P.

XREAP2016-08.pdf

Tourism is a highly dynamic sector. An example of this is the boom that cruise tourism has seen in recent years, leading many countries to consider cruises a key product in their development of tourism. The Port of Barcelona has become the leading cruise port in the Mediterranean area (2.4 million cruise passengers in 2014), highlighting its role as both a port of call and a homeport. Such leadership is explained by the conjunction of several factors: its strategic geographical position, its high quality port and transportation infrastructures, and the attractiveness of the city of Barcelona itself, for both its cultural and artistic heritage and its leisure and shopping opportunities.
This article quantifies the local and regional economic impact generated by cruise activity in the Port of Barcelona. Using input-output methodology, its overall impact is computed for the year 2014 as the sum of three partial impacts: direct effect, indirect effect and induced effect. This article is pioneering at the European level, in combining different issues: estimating the impact of the Barcelona Cruise Port activity, presenting these impacts disaggregated at a sectoral level, using a rigorous methodology and carrying out extensive fieldwork. The estimated impacts demonstrate that all sectors, not just traditional tourism-related sectors, benefit from cruise tourism.
Despite the significant economic benefits that cruise activity has generated over the whole Catalan economy, it is important to note that such activity also generates negative externalities associated with congestion and environmental issues. The reduction of these negative effects is one of the major challenges in making the development of cruise tourism sustainable in a city like Barcelona.

Vayá, E. (AQR-IREA, XREAP), García, J. R. (AQR-IREA, XREAP), Murillo, J. ( (AQR-IREA, XREAP), Romaní, J. (AQR-IREA, XREAP),  Suriñach, J. (AQR-IREA, XREAP)

XREAP2016-07.pdf

Recent evidence reveals that transportation’s improvements within metropolitan areas have a clear effect on population and job decentralization processes. Yet, very little has been said on how these improvements affect the spatial organization of the economic activity in the suburbs. This paper analyses the effects of transportation’s changes on employment subcenters formation. Using data from metropolitan Paris between 1968 and 2010, we first show that
rail network improvements cause the expected job decentralization by attracting jobs to suburban municipalities. Our main contribution is to show that the new rail transit clearly affects the spatial organization of employment through the number and size of the employment subcenters: not only does the presence of a rail station increase the probability of a suburban municipality of belonging to a subcenter by 5 to 10 %, but a 10 % increase in municipality proximity to a suburban station is found to increase its chance to be part of a subcenter by 3 to 5 %.

Garcia-López, M. A. (IEB, XREAP), Hemet, C.,Viladecans-Marsal, E. (IEB, XREAP)

XREAP2016-06.pdf

This paper quantifies the impact of public employment on local labor markets in the long-run. We adopt two quantitative approaches and apply them to the case of Spanish cities. In the first, we develop a 3-sector (public, tradable and non-tradable) search and matching model embedded within a spatial equilibrium model. We characterize the steady state of the model, which we calibrate to match the labor market characteristics of the average Spanish city. The model is then used to simulate the local labor market effects of expanding public sector employment. In the second empirical approach, we use regression analysis to estimate the effects of public sector job expansions on decadal changes (1980-1990 and 1990-2001) in the employment and population of Spanish cities. This analysis exploits the dramatic expansion of public employment that followed the advent of democracy in the period 1980 to 2001. The instrumental variables’ approach thatwe adopt uses the capital status of cities to instrument for changes in public sector employment. The two empirical approaches yield qualitatively similar results and, thus, cross-check each other. One additional public sector job creates about 1.3 jobs in the private sector. However, these new jobs do not translate into a substantial reduction in the local unemployment rate as better labor market conditions attract new workers to the city. Increasing public employment by 50% only reduces unemployment from 0.156 to 0.150.

Jofre-Monseny, J. (IEB, XREAP), Silva, J. I., Vázquez-Grenno, J. (IEB, XREAP)

XREAP2016-05.pdf